27 Oct

Bank of Canada on Sidelines, as Expected – Dominion Lending Centres

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BANK OF CANADA ON SIDELINES, AS EXPECTED

 

BOC Will Raise Rates Only Cautiously

Our own Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres reports:

The Bank of Canada held overnight interest rates at 1.0% following two consecutive rate hikes at the July and September meetings. It was widely expected that the Bank would take a breather this round. The central bank also released its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) today, in which it forecast that growth would be 3.1% this year, 2.1% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. The rapid pace of economic growth over the past four quarters surprised the Bank on the high side. Going forward, the Bank forecasts GDP to moderate to a more sustainable pace.

Exports and business investment are expected to contribute to growth over the forecast horizon. In contrast, “housing and consumption are forecast to slow in light of policy changes affecting housing markets and higher interest rates.” The Bank went on to say that “because of high debt levels, household spending is likely more sensitive to interest rates than in the past.” I would go one step further and suggest that higher sensitivity to interest rates is all the more so because of the OSFI stress testing of borrowers at 200 basis points above current contract mortgage rates.

The central bank continues to expect global growth to average roughly 3.5% over the 2017- 2019 period, noting that uncertainty remains high regarding geopolitical developments and fiscal and trade policies. Notably, the renegotiation of NAFTA will have a meaningful impact on the economies of North America, but given the uncertainty, the Bank economists have left this factor out of the base case projection.

Measures of core inflation have edged up as expected, but the Bank now forecasts that inflation will rise to 2% in the second half of 2018, which is a bit later than anticipated in the July MPR reflecting the recent strength in the Canadian dollar.

Business investment contributes to increases in capacity and productivity; hence the Bank of Canada now assumes that annual growth of potential output is 1.5% over 2018-19, which is slightly above the assumption since April 2017. How fast the economy can grow without triggering inflation is a big issue these days. The central bank will publish a full reassessment of this critical point in April 2018. The higher the level of potential growth, the lower the estimated level of the “neutral” nominal policy rate–the level of the overnight rate that is consistent with the Bank’s target of 2% inflation. The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada now estimates the neutral rate to be between 2.5% and 3.5%. The Bank’s economic projection is based on the midpoint of this range– 3.0%. In other words, the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada estimates that it will ultimately raise the policy rate from the current level of 1.0% by 200 basis points to 3.0% once the economy is at full employment. That is a substantial proportional jump in rates, which would undoubtedly slow interest-sensitive spending, and nothing is more interest-sensitive than housing. Which makes you wonder why the financial institutions’ regulator (OSFI) has been so intent on further tightening mortgage credit conditions.

The tone of today’s policy statement was decidedly more dovish–cautious about future rate hikes–than in July and September. Why is that? Firstly, the Bank came under a good deal of criticism for hiking rates more rapidly than expected, reversing the two rate cuts implemented (unexpectedly) in 2016. Secondly, the Bank sees significant risks to the outlook. These risks are delineated in the MPR as follows:
• A shift toward greater protectionist trade policies in the U.S. that weaken Canadian exports
• A more substantial impact of structural factors (Internet, digitization, robots) and prolonged excess supply on inflation (higher potential growth)
• Stronger real GDP growth in the U.S. (owing to prospective deregulation and tax cuts)
• Stronger consumption and rising household debt in Canada
• A pronounced drop in house prices in overheated markets

The Bank of Canada sees the risks to the inflation outlook as balanced–in other words, it is just as likely for inflation to move above forecasted levels as below them. Hence, the Bank will be cautious in raising interest rates in the future and their actions will be data dependent. In their words, “while less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. In particular, the Bank will be guided by incoming data to assess the sensitivity of the economy to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation. “

27 Oct

TIME TO LOCK IN A VARIABLE RATE MORTGAGE?

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TIME TO LOCK IN A VARIABLE RATE MORTGAGE?

Approximately 32 per cent of Canadians are in a variable rate mortgage, which with rates effectively declining steadily for the better part of the last ten years has worked well.

Recent increases triggers questions and concerns, and these questions and concerns are best expressed verbally with a direct call to your independent mortgage expert – not directly with the lender. There are nuances you may not think to consider before you lock in, and that almost certainly will not be primary topics for your lender.

Over the last several years there have been headlines warning us of impending doom with both house price implosion, and interest rate explosion, very little of which has come to fruition other than in a very few localized spots and for short periods of time thus far.

Before accepting what a lender may offer as a lock in rate, especially if you are considering freeing up cash for such things as renovations, travel or putting towards your children’s education, it is best to have your mortgage agent review all your options.

And even if you simply wanted to lock in the existing balance, again the conversation is crucial to have with the right person, as one of the key topics should be prepayment penalties.

In many fixed rate mortgage, the penalty can be quite substantial even when you aren’t very far into your mortgage term. People often assume the penalty for breaking a mortgage amounts to three months’ interest payments, which in the case of 90% of variable rate mortgages is correct. However, in a fixed rate mortgage, the penalty is the greater of three months’ interest or the interest rate differential (IRD).

The ‘IRD’ calculation is a byzantine formula. One designed by people working specifically in the best interests of shareholders, not the best interests of the client (you). The difference in penalties from a variable to a fixed rate product can be as much as a 900 per cent increase.

The massive penalties are designed for banks to recuperate any losses incurred by clients (you) breaking and renegotiating the mortgage at a lower rate. And so locking into a fixed rate product without careful planning can mean significant downside.

Keep in mind that penalties vary from lender to lender and there are different penalties for different types of mortgages. In addition, things like opting for a “cash back” mortgage can influence penalties even more to the negative, with a claw-back of that cash received way back when.

Another consideration is that certain lenders, and thus certain clients, have ‘fixed payment’ variable rate mortgages. Which means that the payment may at this point be artificially low, and locking into a fixed rate may trigger a more significant increase in the payment than expected.

There is no generally ‘correct’ answer to the question of locking in, the type of variable rate mortgage you hold and the potential changes coming up in your life are all important considerations. There is only a ‘specific-to-you’ answer, and even then – it is a decision made with the best information at hand at the time that it is made. Having a detailed conversation with the right people is crucial.

It should also be said that a poll of 33 economists just before the recent Bank of Canada rate increase had 27 advising against another increase. This would suggest that things may have moved too fast too soon as it is, and we may see another period of zero movement. The last time the Bank of Canada pushed the rate to the current level it sat at this level for nearly five full years.

Life is variable, perhaps your mortgage should be too.

As always, if you have questions about locking in your variable mortgage, or breaking your mortgage to secure a lower rate, or any general mortgage questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage specialist.

We would like to thank Tracy Valko – Dominion Lending Centres for writing this piece.

 

 

20 Oct

NEW MORTGAGE CHANGES DECODED

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This week, OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) announced that effective January 1, 2018 the new Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices and Procedures (Guidelines B-20) will be applied to all Federally Regulated Lenders. Note that this currently does not apply to Provincially Regulated Lenders (Credit Unions) but it is possible they will abide by and follow these guidelines when they are placed in to effect on January 1, 2018.

The changes to the guidelines are focused on
• the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages
• expectations around loan-to-value (LTV) frameworks and limits
• restrictions to transactions designed to work around those LTV limits.

What the above means in layman’s terms is the following:

OSFI STRESS TESTING WILL APPLY TO ALL CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES

The new guidelines will require that all conventional mortgages (those with a down payment higher than 20%) will have to undergo stress testing. Stress testing means that the borrower would have to qualify at the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada (currently at 4.89%) or the contractual mortgage rate +2% (5 year fixed at 3.19% +2%=5.19% qualifying rate).

These changes effectively mean that an uninsured mortgage is now qualified with stricter guidelines than an insured mortgage with less than 20% down payment. The implications of this can be felt by both those purchasing a home and by those who are refinancing their mortgage. Let’s look at what the effect will be for both scenarios:

PURCHASING A NEW HOME
When purchasing a new home with these new guidelines, borrowing power is also restricted. Using the scenario of a dual income family making a combined annual income of $85,000 the borrowing amount would be:

Current Lending Guidelines

Qualifying at a rate of 3.34% with a 25-year amortization and the combined income of $85,000 annually, the couple would be able to purchase a home at $560,000

New lending Guidelines

Qualifying at a rate of 5.34% (contract mortgage rate +2%) with a 25-year amortization and the combined annual income of $85,000 you would be able to purchase a home of $455,000.

OUTCOME: This gives a reduced borrowing amount of $105,000…Again a much lower amount and lessens the borrowing power significantly.

REFINANCING A MORTGAGE

A dual-income family with a combined annual income of $85,000.00. The current value of their home is $700,000. They have a remaining mortgage balance of $415,000 and lenders will refinance to a maximum of 80% LTV.
The maximum amount available is: $560,000 minus the existing mortgage gives you $145, 0000 available in the equity of the home, provided you qualify to borrow it.

Current Lending Requirements
Qualifying at a rate of 3.34 with a 25-year amortization, and a combined annual income of $85,000 you are able to borrow $560,000. If you reduce your existing mortgage of $415,000 this means you could qualify to access the full $145,000 available in the equity of your home.

New Lending Requirements
Qualifying at a rate of 5.34% (contract mortgage rate +2%) with a 25-year amortization, combined with the annual income of $85,000 and you would be able to borrow $455,000. If you reduce your existing mortgage of $415,000 this means that of the $145,000 available in the equity of your home you would only qualify to access $40,000 of it.

OUTCOME: That gives us a reduced borrowing power of $105,000. A significant decrease and one that greatly effects the refinancing of a mortgage.

CHANGES AND RESTRICTIONS TO LOAN TO VALUE FRAMEWORKS (NO MORTGAGE BUNDLING)

Mortgage Bundling is when primary mortgage providers team up with an alternative lender to provide a second loan. Doing this allowed for borrowers to circumvent LTV (loan to value) limits.
Under the new guidelines bundled mortgages will no longer be allowed with federally regulated financial institutions. Bundled mortgages will still be an option, but they will be restricted to brokers finding private lenders to bundle behind the first mortgage with the alternate lender. With the broker now finding the private lender will come increased rates and lender fees.
As an example, we will compare the following:
A dual income family that makes a combined annual income of $85,000 wants to purchase a new home for $560,000. The lender is requiring a LTV of 80% (20% down payment of $112,000.00). The borrowers (our dual income family) only have 10% down payment of $56,000.. This means they will require alternate lending of 10% ($56,000) to meet the LTV of 20%.

Current Lending Guidelines
The alternate lender provides a second mortgage of $56,000 at approximately 4-6% and a lender fee of up to 1.25%.

New Lending Guidelines
A private lender must be used for the second mortgage of $56,000. This lender is going to charge fees up to 12% plus a lenders fee of up to 6%

OUTCOME: The interest rates and lender fees are significantly higher under the new guidelines, making it more expensive for this dual income family.

These changes are significant and they will have different implications for different people. Whether you are refinancing, purchasing or currently have a bundled mortgage, these changes could potentially impact you. We advise that if you do have any questions, concerns or want to know more that you contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage specialist. They can advise on the best course of action for your unique situation and can help guide you through this next round of mortgage changes.

 

We would like to thank GEOFF LEE, Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional for writing this.